Columns

Given the global conditions, Fed rate hikes, capital outflows, elevated oil price rise, closing output gap, rising current account deficit and the likely pressures on the fisc in the run up to 2019, a rate hike seemed a foregone conclusion. These coupled with the recent rise in core inflation and... read more

MPC's unanimous decision for a rate hike that has come after a gap of more than four years took note of the prevailing good domestic demand condition, particularly in the rural areas on the back of a bumper harvest and the government’s thrust on rural housing and infrastructure. As already... read more

The overall growth signals both from the demand side (consumption and investment) and supply side (agriculture, manufacturing and services) are encouraging. There is a consensus that there are signs of revival of investment activity with manufacturing output showing strong revival and indicating... read more

The PM after his unprecedented electoral victory in May 2014, was soon blessed with an unexpected bounty, in the form of a steep fall in oil prices. This led to considerable saving in the current account, in the oil subsidy and in bringing down inflation. The fiscal benefit to the government during... read more

It was less than a year ago that the government put out some sure shot views that in sum said: “oil prices are broadly capped”. The words came in the Economic Survey 2016-17 Vol. 2 of Aug.2017, which reported with rather uncanny surety, “Shale technology will ensure that prices cannot remain above... read more

The economy is heading into adverse macro winds as we begin this fiscal year of 2018-19. By the end of this year or later, we will also have national elections, which are always a disruptive factor for the economy. The current adverse macro winds have four reasons. Firstly, the rupee is... read more

Ordinary people must have the right of way, they come first, and that this is the only way Mumbai can thrive as a remain the city that recognises the contribution of all sections of society. And this is a message that can be taken across all of urban India. We may still take ideas and support from... read more

The constitution of India laid out clearly in its seventh schedule which legislative and policy areas would be with the Centre and which would be with the States. There are three lists in the seventh schedule, called the Union list, the States list and the concurrent list. This demarcates not only... read more

India’s female labour force participation rate (LFPR) has fallen steeply in the past thirteen years. This is the ratio of females who are doing paid work as a proportion of the total women of working age. The decline is actually a longer term phenomenon. As per a report from the International... read more

India and China together account for two fifth of humanity. They are neighbours, and as independent nation states, were born roughly at the same time. They have ancient civilisational links, although geographically separated by the highest ice covered mountains of the world. The relationship... read more

We have seen a heated debated on one of the terms of reference of the 15th Finance Commission that mandates it to look at the 2011 census data for population. This changes the practice of keeping the reference point at the 1971 census data, anachronistic in our times but still providing comfort to... read more

Given the surcharged political atmosphere, it is no surprise that trust in the words of the Finance Minister is low. Apart from that, there are messages embedded in the terms of reference, like “quality of expenditure” and “control in populist measures” that the States fear may expand the remit of... read more

Much of this fits with President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and anti-trade stance. He believes that the world treats America unfairly, in benefiting from open borders and low import duties in US, and access to its consumers, but not reciprocating by keeping their own countries protected behind high... read more

The over-arching goal of a society should determine how trade must be regulated. If the over-arching goal of humanity is to increase the size of the global economic pie, all barriers to trade must be removed. Each country should produce only what it can produce most competitively and buy from... read more

We have been taken too far away from our natural moorings and there is now value and opportunity for those who can help the nation pull back from the brink. Mamata has stood out at least for now and the message should be that voices like these can drive new equations that the BJP cannot afford to... read more

Getting the inflation projection even nearly right is tough, especially when a huge component is food and fuel. Hence RBI has to necessarily act on the basis of the drivers of inflation. A reading of the more detailed monetary policy report accompanying the resolution does not throw much more light...

The MPC resolution way down refers to the twin balance sheet crisis in these words: “…it is especially important that domestic macroeconomic fundamentals are strengthened, deleveraging of distressed corporates and rebuilding of bank balance sheets persisted with, and the risk-sharing markets... read more

The central message flowing out of this survey is loud and clear: continuance of the neutral stance for some more months with a good chance of a rate hike towards the end of the current fiscal. The G-sec market, which saw a sharp rebound in the latter half of March, saw decent rise in prices after... read more

One of the significant global trends these days is the rise of protectionism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi identified this as one of three major global challenges in his speech at Davos earlier this year. The rise of protectionism is closely identified with the trade policies articulated and now... read more

These days there is much hand wringing about the unfair treatment of the southern States in their share of tax resources of the nation.  For the moment, leave aside the fact that this controversy gets much of its fuel from the current election and campaign rhetoric. So let’s focus on the... read more